by T.O. Whenham - 03/31/2008

The Masters doesn't start in Augusta until April 10, but most of the field is set and odds are already available, so it is never too early to be on the lookout for potential betting value. After all, people aren't thinking about the tournament yet, so there could be some value in the numbers. Here, then, is a look at the 2008 Masters Golf Odds and Predictions.

Value bets

Phil Mickelson (+1000) - Mickelson has won two of the last four Masters. He has finished in the top 10 in eight of the last nine seasons. He hasn't played a ton this year, but he does have a win and a second already, and he bounced back from an uncharacteristic missed cut at Pebble Beach to win the next week so we can disregard that as a blip instead of a cause for concern. Mickelson likes the course and he is playing well. It's hard to call 10/1 a value in a golf tournament, but given that I wouldn't have been surprised to see him at 8/1 or even 7/1 this qualifies as such.

Adam Scott (+3000) - It seems as if Scott is always touted as a contender at Augusta, and that will be no different this year. Scott has a win on the European Tour this year, and top 15 finishes in two tries on this side of the pond. He hasn't really been in the mix at Augusta since a ninth in his first appearance, but he is usually in contention (27th the last two years), and could easily contend if he got hot and caught a break or two. He seems destined to win one eventually, so the price could certainly be less attractive.

Padraig Harrington (+3000) - Harrington was a solid seventh last year at Augusta and has another top 10 on the course to his credit. He also has that U.S. Open win last year under his belt, so winning at a major won't intimidate him. He has had a light playing schedule this year, but he has played well when he has played, and his putting has been fantastic. It would be the furthest thing from a shock to see him near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday morning.

Tiger Woods (+125) - Saying that there is value in a payer at this kind of price would be incredibly ridiculous if it were any other player. The only reason I say it here, though, is because this price is likely better than it is going to be by the time the public starts to unleash on him closer to the tournament. He's playing as well as it is possible to play right now, the course is practically built for him, and he is laser-focused on winning majors by the wheelbarrow-full this year. As strange as it may seem if you take a step back and look at it, this tournament is absolutely his to lose.

Live longshots

Stephen Ames (+12500) - I'm not picking this guy just because he lives only five miles from me. Ames had a 10th, 12th, and 24th in majors last year, and he showed in his win at the Players Championship two years ago that he isn't intimidated by top competition. He hasn't played much this year, but he has played well when he has, and he has been working hard on his swing. Ames is the kind of pesky player that can be found in the heart of the race in surprising situations.

Fred Couples (+15000) - If you are truly a gambler then this old guy might be worth a shot. He has third and sixth place finishes in the last four Masters, he has won here in the past, and he says that he is feeling as well as he has in a long time. It probably won't happen, but it would be a lot of fun if it did.

Sucker bets

Zach Johnson (+6500) - Johnson will get a fair bit of action as the defending champion, and his price will very likely fall, but he isn't a good bet. Defending a major is a very tough thing to do if you are just a normal, mortal golfer - Mike Weir and Rich Beem are two of the many guys who missed the cut at the tournament they won the year after they won it. Johnson has played poorly this year and has given little reason to consider him outside of his win last year, so he is unquestionably undervalued.

Ernie Els (+2200) - I'm not saying that Els can't or won't win at Augusta. I'm just saying that these odds are ridiculous and that he does not deserve to be the third choice in the field. He has a win this year, but he has been less than inspiring since then. Augusta has not been friendly to him in recent years - he missed the cut last year and was 27th and 47th the two years before that. You can never rule a guy like this out completely, but I am more than willing to say he is not going to win this tournament once every 23 times or more, so he isn't good value.
 

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