You see a lot of articles from cappers, industry insiders and gaming editors talking about how the public is wrong. It is always an intriguing situation as I watch football during the day myself, and bet against late line moves and even halftime. Because of this business I cannot post these plays in time for sales and money making opportunities for my clients due to time constraints, but I thought I would track these moves and public plays from a new perspective this weekend and break it down. Is the public stupid or did they beat the books this weekend? I am going with the top 5-7 plays from the public consensus polls on-line and track the wins and losses in both the NCAA on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday.
My contention has always been to play the contrarian and go against strong public moves where a game is totally lopsided in terms of how it is wagered, and if the public continues to drive a line higher, I like to move against the line and take the extra points, especially in the NFL. Let’s see how this breaks down on the weekend of September 28th. Can the public outsmart the books this weekend? Did the oddsmakers put enough space between the favorite and the underdogs? The action is not balanced as you can tell on the posted games, and I notice that every consensus play on Saturday is a favorite, not one underdog. Going into this I am skeptical that 7 games, laying big points is going to come out in the public's favor. Remember the books like as close to 50/50 action as possible on each game so they get their vig on the action bet which is 10% in football, and they do not care who wins or loses.
On Saturday morning at 9 AM CST here is the top 7 in College football, I will then come back in here and post and win or loss and then analyze the results at the end of the weekend. We will do the same with the Top 5 games in the NFL.
Saturday's Top Public plays from Wagerline are the following:
Troy -12 82% took Troy against Louisiana Monroe RESULT: WIN
Louisville -8 76% took them against NC State RESULT: WIN
Central Florida -22.. 76% took them against UL Laf. RESULT: LOSS
Hawaii -2674% took them against Idaho RESULT: WIN
Cincinnati -14 73% took them against San Diego St. RESULT: WIN
Michigan -16.5 73% took them against Northwestern RESULT: LOSS
Penn St. -3 72.4% took them against Illinois ( 2053 people on Penn St and 778 on Illinois. RESULT: LOSS
Saturday and Friday saw 5 out of the top 10 teams fall to lesser opponents, most shocking was Oklahoma losing to an inferior team, while Texas was getting pounded by Kansas State, who is underrated. Ironically both play each other this week in the Red River War. The public went 4-3 on consensus plays on Saturday, taking the books money with lopsided action. However, when laying big points it should be noted that teams like Florida and Oklahoma also garnered a lot of public money, including mine as I laid it with both of them and lost.
One thing I am certain of after this weekend in football in the NCAA. Parity is present. Laying bug numbers with GOOD teams is very dangerous. Many had close calls, including highly touted Southern Cal who slipped to #2 now in the AP Top 25 poll because of it, and Cal against Oregon was much closer than I thought it would be. Florida getting beat at home and Texas getting beat at home by teams they were defeated by last year was a shocker. The Big 12 South, highly rated over the Big 12 North, saw the top 2 teams POUNDED by Big 12 north teams. Teams like Clemson and Penn State, who were in tough games they should have won, never made the plays when needed to close the deal and lost. Tommy Bowden at Clemson has had a terrible run in close games where the Tigers simply cannot close them out, or make big plays when needed. A TD called back because of a penalty and 2 missed field goals were their demise once again.
NFL Sunday Top Public Plays
Houston -2.5 72% took them against Atlanta RESULT: LOSS
Green Bay -2 67% took them against Minnesota RESULT: WIN
Dallas -11.5 64% took them against St. Louis RESULT: WIN
Pittsburgh -5 64% took them against Arizona RESULT: LOSS
Baltimore -4.5 63% took them against Cleveland RESULT: LOSS
The NFL Continues to frustrate me more so than any of my 16 years in the NFL handicapping arena. You simply cannot rely on numbers, stats and injury reports. The public also went 2-3 ATS on the top 5 consensus plays of the day. Coaches and organizations list players doubtful on injury reports and then they have career games that day. As a capper who relies on quality information and relies on handicapping stats and recent performance, it is almost impossible on any given Sunday without luck to sweep the board.
The NFL is simply so loaded with parity other than a few select teams like Dallas at the moment, and the Patriots, anything else is up for grabs. Take the Giants on Sunday Night. Allowing over 32 ppg on defense, they looked better than the 1985 Bears, setting an NFL record with 12 sacks and rendering the Eagles who lit it up for over 50 points the week before, to look like some Junior College team playing the in the Pros on Sunday Night. Jekyll and Hyde each and every week, and even the public consensus struggled on Sunday. They lost and went 2-3.
In my little weekend study it was very interesting to note that all consensus plays were favorites, college and pro. That looks like a dangerous proposition down the road if the recent trend continues. Laying numbers over 10 to 14 in college ball and playing favorites of 5 or more in the NFL, especially on the road is a bad bet right now. Trends and patterns change from week to week in the NFL and even out, but right now it is a crapshoot for even the savvy to figure out.
Tony George
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