As I had stated last week, Jacksonville is a dangerous team for anyone to have to face. Now, the undefeated Patriots get their crack at facing them. Sounds like I am implying that JAX is the team to beat, but what I am really emphasizing is that JAX will be able to score points against New England. The AiS shows an 85% probability that 50 or more points will be scored in this game. Moreover, there is a 90% probability that both teams will gain 400 or more total yards in this game. This puts both teams into a great role for an OVER type of game. New England is on a 9-3 OVER run this year, 14-5 OVER run the past 3 seasons and a 36-16 OVER run since 1992 when they gain 400 or more total yards in a game. Jacksonville is on an 18-5 OVER run since 1992 when they ALLOW 400 or more total yards.

Jacksonville played aggressive defense in their game against Pittsburgh, but that scheme will NOT work against the big play offense of New England. Instead, you will see JAX employ an underneath coverage scheme that will prevent any huge pass plays down the middle of the field. This will only force NE to take more time to score – say an extra 2 minutes. That may sound a bit sarcastic, but in fact, I do not see any scheme that JAX can utilize to contain this rested offense. JAX will be more than able to move the ball on the ground and NE will allow this to happen between the 20’s. The bend and don’t break scheme will work well against Jacksonville and also opens up the opportunity for NE to show many different looks and add confusion to Garrard’s reads and progressions. JAX has multiple matchup advantages using Taylor and other receivers on slant routes across the middle, especially in a zone underneath scheme. I also believe that NE will get their turnovers too after they jump out to a fast lead. I would not be surprised at all to see this game 28-14 or even 28-21 at the half in favor of NE based on the AiS projections. Good Luck!