Another NBA season is set to start, seems like the last season just got over! I love capping the NBA, year in and year out one of my strongest sports. If any season other than MLB is a marathon, it is the NBA. My low volume approach is one I have adopted over the years for good reason, Money Management. I find the best bet on the board daily, and wager it. All on a flat bet basis. If I do not find a game I like, I pass. Usually you can find a side or total daily and make a solid wager.
I thought I would put down a few notes here to consider, and it is important at the beiginning of the season to use caution and take it slowly the first couple of weeks until teams gel, and some chemistry and patterns develops with NBA teams. As every year, it is the same faces in different places so be sure and watch teams with new players who were stars on other teams and watch the chemistry level develop.
Here are some things to consider:
I rarely make more than a few plays the first couple of weeks. As stated above, the lines need to settle down a little and teams need to gel and develop, and I just as soon not find out while playing russian roulette with my bankroll that the Lakers cannot cover double digits or a high number every night because they are the Lakers with everyone back early in the season!
Teams that play good defense with a lot of players back are ones to look at early. I like to watch for teams that contest the rim at both ends of the floor early in the season, in other words, an active front court. Teams that rely on their backcourt early on for scoring, are not in mid season form, and tend to miss a ton of shots, and if they do not contest the rim, will not cover spreads early on.
Bettting multiple games in a day is suicide early one. Find the best bet out of the ones you like, and wager it. At days end you will have more positive units at the end of the week, other than trying to bet 3 or 4 games a day.
Flat bet your plays. Equal amounts of money on each bet every day to build your bankroll.
Bet early! If you like a play at a certian line, bet it then! If a capper has a play out at 10 AM in the morning, then bet it asap if you invest with him. Lines can move 3 or 4 points in an afternoon in the NBA, especially with totals.
Late steam, play the lines and shop those lines. Having more than 1 outlet for NBA and NCAA basketball is crucial. If you like an underdog, and see a half point move in that direction early on, I tend to sit on the play and try to see if I can get more value later in the day. Say the Clippers open at +4 and then right out of the gate jump up to +4.5 and then you see +5 by Noon EST, you might want to wait till 4 or 5 PM that day to see if you can get another half point because the line is moving in your direction and the public is driving it. The sharps will move lines early and then the public follows, remember that.
Just a few thoughts as we kick off the NBA this week. Use good judgement, money management and remember, LESS is MORE early on.
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Tony George
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