While not a big fan of exotic wagers, I do at the beginning of the year look at over and under win totals on NFL teams for the season as a good way to make a long term investment. Forget ESPN and all the others, and listen to the Pro's guys, as this is not glossed over for TV, but the real deal. Too much public perception leads to Vegas cashing in year after year. After considering the free agent market, not so much the draft as few rookies make a huge impact other than the rare exception, here's my Top 5 team wagers on over and under prop bets for season win totals.
Bears UNDER 8 wins
Chicago did little in off season to bolster their roster and QB Rex Grossman, one year removed from a dismal Super Bowl performance did nothing in 2007 to improve his skills or decision making. The Bears have little rushing game and their starting RB has had off-season trouble not once but twice! An aging WR unit, a defense that is overrated, and a division with the likes of the surging Vikings and the runner up NFC champs Packers does little for the Bears chances. A brutal November as well if you look at their schedule. You cannot win in the NFL scoring 14 to 20 points a game. Until the Bears draft a QB or get one in free agency, I do not see Rex Grossman leading them to another championship in the NFC, nor the defense carrying them every game, as evidenced by last years effort.
Saints OVER 8.5 wins (My strongest Prop bet)
I love the Saints this year to get back into the groove of things. With the addition of Jeremy Shockey from New York, with Colson at WR, and the 1-2 punch of Bush and a healthy McCallister at RB, the Saints should be a powerhouse on offense with a still underrated Drew Brees pulling the trigger at QB. There was some improvement on defense but the offense will have to score 24 to 28 ppg to get wins, and that should not be a problem. They play in a very weak division with a weak schedule too, which is a huge positive for them. I would not be surprised to see them deep into the playoffs this season again. I feel that this team is poised to make a big move in 2008!
Raiders UNDER 6 wins
I am not a Raider fan this year. No QB that can play the game as of yet on ther roster in Russell, and banking on a rookie RB in McFadden who will be a good one out of Arkansas, but alas no offensive line, is a big mistake. Hopefully WR free agent Javone Walker can fill the place of Porter who was traded to Jacksonville, but I doubt the defense can stop people running the ball. Quite frankly the Raiders simply cannot score enough points, or keep their offense on the field long enough to rest the defense, and as the game wears down, the Raiders will lose. Too bad because I think Lane Kiffen could be a great coach, but not under Al Davis or the team he has this year. There also is turmoil on the coaching staff and at one point Al Davis was going to fire Kiffen. Not good news heading into this year with allot of question marks
Arizona OVER 7.5 wins
I was all over the Cards last year as an ATS cover team, and they did well. This is a talented team, deep on offense at skill positions, and if QB Leinart can get his act together this team could be a playoff contender. They will battle it out with Seattle this year for top honors in the division, but they have a deep RB unit, the best 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL, and a solid tight end as well, and a decent O line. The ageless Kurt Warner is still around to bail them out, and the defense is improved again. I see 10 wins here out of the Cards and a possible playoff run if they can stay healthy and balance the attack.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 wins
Mike Holmgren's last year folks, and he will make a run. This team has a great QB, a solid defense, solid WR's and a strong homefield. They play in a weak division, although Arizona is going to contend as mentioned earlier. Running backs Julius Jones and TJ Duckett step in for the departed Alexander, and they have and undersized but good line. The defense allowed just 15 TD passes against them all year, an NFL best, and this unit remains pretty much in tact. This is a solid team, with good coaching a good special teamers, and great overall team speed. Seattle will contend and win 10 games this year as Holmgeren is too good of a coach to go out with his tail between his legs!
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