Thursday March 20, 2008 9:55 EST tip

The Delta Devils are in the Tournament, but now have to face arguably the best team in the tournament. UCLA relies on its’ starting five most of the time and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is on the mend. He is by far the best defensive player on the team and one of the best in the country. UCLA’s dominant defense and their ability to lock down at crucial times during games is singles them out as a favorite to win the Men’s Championship. That lock down style of defense will more than overwhelm; more like destroy; any offensive play that MVST wants to try to run.

Freshman Kevin Love is one of the best players in the nation and is certainly a player of the year candidate. With all due respect there is no that can guard him from MVST. I do believe that A Moute will not play and that will give him another 2 days of healing. They don’t need him to win this game and UCLA’s goal is not just to make it to the Final 4. They want to win period. The significant development of Westbrook this season is still another reason to rest a Moute.

Let’s not under estimate MVST though as they are on their own 9 game winning streak and defeated a solid Jackson State team in the SWAC final by a point. The SWAC is a conference that has fearless perimeter shooting. One of those players is Stanford Speech. He took a ton of shots (285) and hit just 35% of them, but there are times where he is sensational. The team leader though is Lucas, who can leap out of the arena. Make sure you watch this game just to see him play. This team actually scored just 21 points in a humiliating loss to Washington State, but since have played above their potential.

That presents interesting handicapping considerations given that this line is a whopping 32 points and a total of just 122. This total project to a 75-48 UCLA win. The public though is supporting MVST in a big way and I believe that reflects the idea that UCLA will rest it’s key players and may not even play A Moute. Still, I can also see UCLA winning this game by 50 points. My AiS shows a 70% probability that UCLA will win this game by 32 points. Supporting this 3* MAJOR is another minor projection showing an 86% probability that UCLA will have 10 or more rebounds than MVST. Note that UCLA is 13-2 ATS when they grab 10+ more rebounds than their opponents in a game this season. Take the Bruins