I'm taking the points with CAL POLY. These teams just faced each other on Saturday. The Anteaters needed a win to make it into this tournament and eked out a 91-84 victory, in overtime. I expect the Mustangs, who had won the earlier meeting, to avenge that loss this evening. The Anteaters have the better overall record. However, that's thanks to their record at home and better record outside the conference. A closer look shows that the Mustangs actually have the better record in conference play and the slightly better road record. Prior to Saturday's win, the Anteaters had lost seven straight on the road. The Mustangs have won two of their last three away from home, most recently a 102-89 destruction of Hawaii. Both teams have been playing very close games recently, which makes getting points, even if only a couple, an attractive proposition. Prior to their OT win at Cal-Poly, the Anteaters had seen their previous three games decided by three, five and one point. They also had a 2-point win, five games ago. Meanwhile, prior to their OT loss, the Mustangs had seen their previous two games both decided by three points or less. The Anteaters have three players that average double-digits in scoring. Darren Moore averages 10.9 points. Michael Hunter averages 14 and Eric Wise leads the team with 16.4. However, no other player averages more than 5.5. The Mustangs score more points and have more scoring options. They've got four players averaging double-digits in scoring and six who average greater than six per game. Lorenzo Keeler leads the team with 16. UC Santa Barbara coach Bob Williams recently said this of Keeler: "He's very difficult to contain off the dribble, he shoots it and he's very aggressive. He's a senior and he's playing fearlessly. He knows it's his team and that this is his time, and that's a dangerous combination." The Mustangs were 5-3 off a conference loss this season. The Anteaters were 0-5 off a conference win. The Anteaters are also 2-5 SU/ATS (0-2 SU/ATS their last two) the last seven times that they were listed as neutral court favorites (or pick'em) of three points or less. During that stretch, the Mustangs were 2-1 SU/ATS as neutral court underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. I expect them to build on those stats by scoring the minor upset here. *10

I'm taking the points with DETROIT. The Jazz beat me last night but I'm going to go against them again here. While Utah played at Chicago, the Pistons had the past two nights off. That followed a momentum-building comeback OT win over the Rockets on Sunday. Note that Detroit is 7-5-1 ATS on the season, when playing with two day's rest in between games. As for the Jazz, they're just 2-3 SU (2-2-1 ATS) the last five times that they played the second of back to back games. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 6-14 SU and 8-11-1 ATS the last 20 times that they played in that situation. Including the win over Houston, the Pistons are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they hosted a team from the Western Conference. Since mid-February, they've also beaten the Spurs and T-Wolves. The Pistons, which lost by six the last time they hosted the Jazz, played Utah very tough when the teams met at Salt Lake City. The Jazz won that one, but did so by only three points, in overtime. While the Pistons will likely be without Stuckey tonight, they were without both Price and Hamilton when they nearly beat the Jazz at Utah. Those two players, who combined for 51 points vs. the Rockets, will both be in the lineup tonight. While the Pistons are just 4-4 SU their last eight home games, NONE of those losses came by greater than six points. I expect them to have the fresher legs and look for them to give the Jazz all they can handle for the second time this season. *8

I'm laying the points with Texas. As you're probably aware, the Longhorns finished the regular season on a major down note. Not only were they blown out at Baylor in their final game but they also lost eight of their last 14 games and became just the fifth team in the entire history of the AP rankings to fall completely out of the poll after being ranked number one. Iowa State, on the other hand, comes off a surprise win over Kansas State in its final regular season. Those results have actually worked in our favor here, as we're getting a lower line on Texas than we would have been otherwise. Let's not forget that the Longhorns were #1 for a reason. Recent problems notwithstanding, they're still a deep and very talented team. They also come in with a real chip on their shoulder and I feel that they'll be looking to make an early statement in this tournament. Texas forward Damion James had this to say: "I bet no team in the country will want to face us when it's a one-and-done deal. We've been on top before and we just have to do it again. We're ready to go." Give them credit for beating Kansas State. However, keep in mind that before that the win, the Cyclones had a 21-game losing streak against ranked teams. Texas may not be ranked but, as indicated, the Longhorns have the talent of a "ranked team." The Longhorns have won eight of the last 10 meetings vs. the Cyclones including five straight. The last six wins came by an average of 11 points. While the Cyclones are 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven on a neutral court, the Longhorns are 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the last five times that they were listed as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect them to improve on those stats with a convincing victory. *10

I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. The Nuggets are tied with Cleveland for the second most home wins (28) in the entire NBA. Only the Lakers have more. They aren't nearly so tough on the road though. In fact, they're below .500 (14-16) away from Denver on the season. I feel that they're laying too many points here. While they haven't beaten them here at Minnesota for some time, the T-Wolves have played the Nuggets fairly tough this season, going 2-1 ATS. The most recent meeting was at Denver and the T-Wolves lost by 11, covering as 13.5 point underdogs. The previous meeting, also at Denver, saw the T-Wolves score the outright upset. Including those results, the T-Wolves are a respectable 17-16 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the other hand, the Nuggets are a money-burning 8-16-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. Yes, the Nuggets did blow out Portland (118-106) last time out and they did it without Kenyon Martin in the lineup. However, that was at Denver and they've still struggled overall, without their leading rebounder in the lineup. Note that the Nuggets, who will also be without Coach Karl on the sideline, are also 9-12-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory. I expect them to have their hands full here. *10

I'm playing on Texas and Iowa State to finish UNDER the total. These teams are both off high-scoring games. Texas was blown out (92-77) at Baylor. Iowa State is off an 85-82 win vs. Kansas State. Those results, combined with the fact that these teams played a high-scoring game against each other in the regular season, have helped to provide us with a generously high total for this evening's game. I feel that it's too high. A closer look at the Cyclones win over the Wildcats shows that 19 of those points were scoring in overtime. In other words, that game had 148 combined points in regulation. That's still relatively high-scoring. However, it's not quite the shootout that the final score suggests. Note that the Cyclones previous game (vs. Missouri) produced only 136 combined points. In fact, that one also went to overtime - it had only 122 in regulation. Looking back further and we find that, prior to the K-State game, five of the Cyclones' previous seven games had finished with 136 or fewer combined points. Overall, even including the K-State result, the Cyclones have seen the UNDER go 9-5 their last 14 against teams with a winning record. Note that they've also seen the UNDER go 3-2 their last five games (which had a total) after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. As for the Longhorns, they weren't at all happy with their defensive effort vs. Baylor. As a result, I expect them to put a real emphasis on improving their defense here. Texas coach Rick Barnes had this to say: "I'm not a little disappointed in our defense, I'm very disappointed," he said. "I don't know of any game where we gave up so many dunks. We had too many guys sitting around watching. I'm not sure if there was anybody on our team that they didn't drive by." Note that the Longhorns have seen the UNDER go 11-7 the past few seasons, when coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 12-8 after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game and 8-5 after failing to cover the spread in their previous three or more consecutive games. The Longhorns have also seen the UNDER go 4-2 their last six Big 12 Tourney games and 9-4 their last 13 first round tournament games overall. I expect the Longhorns to bounce back with a strong defensive effort and look for that to lead to the final combined score staying beneath the number. *9