After losing the opener of this series behind the near no-hitter from Hiroki Kuroda, the Phillies bounced back last night as the bats came back to life early and often. Philadelphia continues to keep pace with the Braves in the National League East as it is four games back thanks to wins in four of five games on this roadtrip. We catch a solid number this afternoon as a team like this is normally overvalued based on the ‘must win’ aspects of it but that isn’t the case here. The Dodgers are just playing out the string as they are nine games back of the Padres in the National League West. Had they been playing better, they might have been able to make a run as the Padres are falling apart but that has not been the case as Los Angeles is a distant nine games back. The Dodgers are solid at home and they put an effective pitcher on the mound this afternoon and both of those factors are helping to keep this line in check. The pitching has been outstanding for the Phillies and it continues today. After a rough opening start in his first game in a Phillies uniform, Roy Oswalt has been outstanding. He has put together five straight quality outings while posting a 1.53 ERA over those five games. Philadelphia is 5-0 in those contests and this includes a seven-inning shutout against the Dodgers four starts back. In 10 career starts against them he is 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA which includes eight quality outings. His teams are 26-6 in his 32 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record below .540. Los Angeles counters with Clayton Kershaw and he has been pretty solid all season. He has a 3.01 ERA on the season but Los Angeles is just 15-12 in his 27 starts which is a low percentage considering that ERA. He has been great at home even though his ERA is slightly higher than on the road but facing the Phillies is an issue. In six career starts, he is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. The Dodgers are 3-7 in Kershaw’s last 10 starts against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and they fall into a great pitching situation. Play against home teams with a moneyline between -100 and -150 starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 48-29 (62.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets have dropped the first two games of this series and they look to salvage a game before the series finale tomorrow night. In the first two games, they were completely outpitched and subsequently lost by a combined score of 18-5. The pitching has been pretty solid all season long as the team ERA of 3.68 is good for fifth best in all of baseball. The hitting has been a different story but we could very well see those bats wake up tonight. The Braves have now won four straight games and they continue to dominate on their home field with a baseball’s best 48-18 record at Turner Field. That is a tough record to go against but because it is so good, we get value on the road team in almost every game played there and we need to pick those spots with the best value combined with significant advantages in certain areas. The Atlanta pitching has been the backbone all season but it has slipped as the ERA is a below average 5.13 over the last 10 games. I believe the Mets posses the pitching edge tonight despite what the vast majority will think. It has been a tale of three seasons for Mike Pelfrey. He started the season by completely dominating the opposing hitters as he had a 2.23 ERA though his 13 starts but things started to turn. Over his next 10 starts he posted a 7.30 ERA which included a couple quality efforts but mostly it was all blowups. He did something to turn it around as he has now tossed four straight quality outings while posting a 1.20 ERA. He has been average against the Braves this season but has a 3.65 ERA in two starts at Turner Field. The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson who has had his ups and downs this year. While the Braves have been awesome at home, Hanson has been the most inconsistent of the bunch. While the Braves are 48-18 at home, they are just 7-7 with Hanson on the hill and that is no advantage at all. He has a 4.12 ERA in those 14 starts and he could be starting to tire as his innings are piling up. He has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings over his last two starts and he has not won since July 3rd. The Braves are 2-7 in Hanson’s last nine starts while the Mets are 12-3 in Pelfrey’s last 15 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Also, New York is 4-1 in its last five games after scoring two runs or fewer in its last game so the bounce back potential is there again. 9* New York Mets

After being the underdog in the first two games of this series, the Rockies are now the favorites and for good reason. Colorado won the opener of this series before dropping Game Two last night and that makes this game rather important. Colorado is seven games behind the slumping Padres in the National League West and while that deficit may not be able to be come back from, the Wild Card race is wide open. The Rockies are 4.5 games back with San Francisco being three games up on them. The Giants are hanging around in the division as they trail the Padres by four games but they have been unable to take advantage of the San Diego skid, which has now reached six games. San Francisco simply is not playing well and it has been unable to put any sort of run together. Since a four-game winning streak at the end of July and start of August, the Giants are only 11-15 in their last 26 games while winning consecutive games only three times. One of the reasons have been struggles from their ace. Tim Lincecum has hit a rough patch of late with four straight non-quality efforts. None have even been close to good as he has posted a dismal 9.00 ERA in those four games with the Giants going 0-4 in those games. He has had some trouble with Colorado this season as in two starts he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. Colorado has actually been his biggest nemesis throughout his career as he has the highest ERA against the Rockies of any team that he has made at least five starts against. Colorado goes with its ace Ubaldo Jimenez and after a small bump in the road, he is mowing them down once again. After a six-game stretch where he posted a 7.64 ERA, Jimenez has since tossed six straight quality starts while putting up a 2.57 ERA over those games. He has been a tough luck loser as run support has fallen off but this is the prime opportunity for the Rockies to gets the bats going. His 2.31 road ERA is best in the National League for all qualified starters. Colorado is 10-2 in its last 12 games following a loss as well as going 14-2 in Jimenez’ last 16 starts when coming off a loss in its previous game. 3* Colorado Rockies

Matt comes back on Wednesday with a 2-0 card on the bases including another MASSIVE underdog! His Ultimate Shocker Reports have been MONEY IN THE BANK all season long and these plays on +150 or higher underdogs have netted +117 Units YTD! He returns with another one for Wednesday that is backed by SENSATIONAL 23-6 (79.3%) Team Angles! Do not miss out on this HUGE ticket!