**TOP PLAY CRUSHER** A.L. Game of the Week The first two games of the series have been split after Baltimore’s win in Game Two last night. Prior to this series, the Orioles had won 15 of the last 17 meetings including seven straight at home but that domination could be a thing of the past. Baltimore moved back to 10 games over .500 at home but it is just 7-6 over its last 10 at Camden Yards as a lot of that success came early in the year. The Orioles are hitting just .257 on the season including .248 over their last 10 games.

The Royals meanwhile have been in a mini-slump with losses in three of their last four games but the overall recent run has been outstanding. Kansas City is 12-4 over its last 16 games and this includes a 6-1 record on the road which is outstanding considering it has been unable to pick up victories away from home over the last few years. The offense has been outstanding over this stretch as the Royals have averaged 5.8 rpg over this 16-game stretch including 5.7 rpg on the road.

One of the best go against pitchers over the years has been Daniel Cabrera and that continues tonight. He has been very below average of late and he has also been the victim of poor run support. He has posted a horrid 7.06 ERA over his last five starts while Baltimore is just 1-6 over his last seven outings. Only half of his six home starts have been quality efforts where his ERA is 5.25 on the year. We also get a contrarian situation to go against as he is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals.

Gil Meche counters for Kansas City and his run has been the exact opposite to that of Cabrera. His season ERA is higher but that was due to early season problems. After the Orioles tagged him for five runs in five innings back on May 9th, he has completely turned it around, allowing three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. His ERA over this span is 3.34 including a solid 2.08 over his last four starts. Six of his eight road starts have been quality outings where his ERA is 3.91 on the year. Play Kansas City Royals 2.5 Units

I’m going back with Boston as the contrarian theory still holds true as the home team is now 11-0 in this series year to date after the Rays win again last night. The Red Sox are seven games under .500 on the road for the season but the offense has been sufficient with a .269 average. It is also .279 over their last 10 games and facing a lefty starter has been good to it so far this season. Boston is hitting .286 on the season against left-handed pitching and most importantly, it is 13-3 on the year against left-handed starters.

Tampa Bay has the second best home record in the American League but it remains a tough place for the home team to generate any offense. Over the last five home series, covering 15 games, the Rays have averaged only 3.7 rpg. On the season, they are averaging just 4.3 rpg while Boston is tied for 10th in baseball, averaging 4.5 rpg on the road. The pitching has been outstanding at home but keeping the Red Sox offense in check yet again will be a difficult task.

At one point Scott Kazmir was the only pitcher for the Rays that could take care of Boston and he did so dominantly. However, it has gone south in recent starts. Over his last six starts against the Red Sox, Kazmir is 1-4 with Tampa Bay losing four of the last five. Three of the last four outings against Boston have been non-quality starts including the last two pitched at Tropicana Field. He has a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over his last three starts and none of those have been quality outings.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was hammered by the Cardinals in his first start back from the disabled list on June 21st. He allowed seven runs in just one inning and it was obvious the rust had settled in. He followed that up with a solid effort next time out in Houston as he allowed no runs on two hits in five innings in a 6-1 Boston win. He has been extremely solid away from Fenway Park, going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six starts. Three of his five career starts against the Rays have been quality outings including two of three in Tampa. Play Boston Red Sox 1.5 Units

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**BEST BET UNDERDOG** Ultimate Dog Shocker The Cubs are in a struggle right now and there is no light at the end of the tunnel. They have lost six of their last eight games and on the road alone, they have dropped seven of their last eight. It has been a mix of bad pitching and hitting as the arms have allowed five runs or more five times over the eight games while the offense has scored more than five runs only twice, averaging a mere 4.4 rpg. The pitching problems go back even further as Chicago has allowed 5.5 rpg over the last 12 games.

The Giants continue to play good as the win last night evened their record at 14-14 since June 1st. They have been a force on the road but it has been a different story at home as they are just 15-25. The problem at home has been the offense as San Francisco has scored two runs or fewer in four straight games. The good news is that the pitching has been outstanding. The Giants have an ERA of 3.77 over their last 10 games including 2.93 from the starters and have allowed two runs or fewer in five of seven games.

The Giants offense could get untracked tonight as they face Ryan Dempster who is coming off his worst outing of the season. He allowed eight runs in just 2.1 innings against the White Sox last time out and it comes as no surprise that the game was on the road. Dempster is 0-3 with a 4.19 ERA in seven road starts with the Cubs going just 2-5 in those games. He has gotten just 3.4 rpg of support and now faces a Giants team that he has never won against as a starter.

San Francisco counters with Kevin Correia who is coming off another good outing but was once again the victim of bad luck. Correia has been healthy for his last three turns in the rotation and he has improved in each of those appearances, allowing five, three and one run, respectively. San Francisco has not given him much support, scoring three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He is 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA in three daytime starts but a much more solid 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five night games. Play San Francisco Giants 2 Units