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Steve Merril
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| Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing.
Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 15 years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis.
The most popular part of Steve Merril’s award-winning selections is the fact he backs each game with a full detailed report and analysis. You get a strong selection, plus the reason why the play will win. This includes detailed statistical analysis and Steve’s powerful team trends and super systems.
You will learn while you earn with Steve Merril’s daily selections as each report is packed full of detailed information. Join forces with the most knowledgeable gaming expert in the industry and have your most profitable season ever.
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| PREVIOUS FIVE DAYS' PICKS |
| Sunday, September 05, 2010 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) - 8:05 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -137 Los Angeles Dodgers |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Los Angeles looks to win this three-game series versus the Giants on Sunday night. Despite trailing 4-3 in the ninth inning last night, the Giants pulled out the 5-4 win, but they are still batting just .192 as a team during the past eight games. They are facing a pitcher tonight with whom they've had limited to no success against. Kuroda is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in six starts against the Giants. In two starts towards the end of last season, Kuroda gave up just three runs and nine hits in 14.3 innings of work. San Francisco hitters are 11 for 72 against Kuroda with Cody Ross (4-15) and Freddy Sanchez (2-12) providing the most hits of the group. Los Angeles' bullpen has an 3.86 ERA and 1.283 WHIP at home and they haven’t been as toxic with Broxton no longer in the closer’s role.
Jonathan Sanchez is looking for his first win against Los Angeles. He's 0-5 with a 6.25 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers. He has already taken a loss against them this season after giving up five runs and six hits in five innings of work. Sanchez has given up 14 runs over his last 13.6 innings pitched against this Dodgers lineup. Matt Kemp (9-20), Jamey Carroll (2-7), and Ryan Theriot (1-2) have good numbers against Sanchez. The Dodgers are 41-30 at home and 31-19 against the N.L. West. They'll face a Giants’ bullpen that has an 4.02 ERA and 1.534 WHIP on the road this season. We’ll back the home team here, especially since Sanchez has had no success against them in his career.
Play DODGERS (-) (action).
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| Tulsa vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: -7/-105 Tulsa |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions for the 2010 season. Neither team should resemble what they looked liked a season ago as Tulsa should be much improved after going 5-7 in 2009 while East Carolina should regress off their 9-5 campaign last year. While the pointspread may look a tad high based on what these teams have accomplished in the past, the reality is that the oddsmakers set this game just right with the projection of each team this season rather than setting a number based on the team’s past.
Tulsa is in their fourth year under head coach Todd Graham. He had his first losing season at Tulsa last year after winning just five games; Graham led the Hurricane to a 21-7 record in his first two seasons. But there was a reason for losing last year. Tulsa scheduled aggressively as they played Oklahoma and Boise St out of conference; two games they obviously lost. Under Graham, Tulsa comes out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Over the last three years, Tulsa has opened with a road game and they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in those games winning by 18, 23, and 24 points. With 9 starters back on offense including quarterback GJ Kinne, we expect more of the same from the Hurricane this afternoon.
East Carolina figures to regress sharply in 2010. The Pirates have won the last two Conference-USA titles, but they’ll be hard-pressed to have a winning season this year. Skip Holtz has moved on to be the head coach at South Florida, and his loss is huge for ECU. Also gone are 14 starters, and since they are revamping their offensive and defensive schemes under new head coach Ruffin McNeill, the Pirates will struggle mightily early in the season. Tulsa is in much better shape for this game, and with Graham’s history of fast starts, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.
Play TULSA (-).
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| Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 2:10 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -120 Detroit Tigers |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Tigers have won three straight games and they can sweep the Royals with a win on Sunday afternoon. They'll face a pitcher that they absolutely dominate. Kyle Davies is 2-7 with a 6.09 ERA in 10 career starts against the Tigers. Davies has split two outings against Detroit this season, but he has given up 10 runs and 19 hits overall. Davies is 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts as he has given up 29 hits over that span. The list is long of hitters who smack Davies around and it includes Miguel Cabrera (9-31), Gerald Laird (5-17), Jhonny Peralta (8-14), Ryan Raburn (5-11), Austin Jackson (2-4), Brennan Boesch (2-3), Will Rhymes (2-3), and Alex Avila (1-2). Detroit has scored 25 runs during their current three game winning streak. The Royals bullpen is now 10-12 at home with an ERA near 4.60.
On the other end of the spectrum is Detroit’s Armando Galarraga who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts against the Royals. He gave up one run and five hits in 6.3 innings pitched against them on August 25th. In his last 19.3 innings of work, the Tigers starter has given up just three runs. Kansas City batters are 19 for 81 against him with Mike Aviles (1-13), Josh Fields (1-9), Mitch Maier (1-9), Yuniesky Betancourt (1-4), and Gregor Blanco (0-3) doing the worst. The Royals are now 30-37 at home and 4-8 in their last 12 games. Since Detroit is in better current form and facing a pitcher they hit well, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.
Play TIGERS (-) (action).
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| Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs (MLB) - 4:10 PM EDT |
Free Play |
| Play: Money Line: -101 Houston Astros |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
FREE PLAY
J.A. Happ continues to be a great acquisition for the Astros. The lefty is 4-2 with Houston and he’s coming off a complete game two hitter at home against the Cardinals. Happ has given up just 15 runs in those seven starts as an Astro. He has faced Arizona just once and he gave up two runs and three hits in six innings pitched against the Diamondbacks last season. Only Kelly Johnson (1-7), Stephen Drew (1-3), and Justin Upton (2-3) have hits against Happ. Upton is questionable for the game and he would be a big loss to the Arizona offense. Arizona is 15-23 against southpaws this season hitting just .255 against them. They are just 11-26 in daytime games as well.
We have faded Rodrigo Lopez time and time again. He's 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA over his last three starts. The righty has given up 13 runs and 25 hits over his last 13.3 innings of work. He faced Houston back in May and gave up two runs and three hits in a seven inning no-decision. Hunter Pence (3-6), Tommy Manzella (1-3), and Geoff Blum (1-2) hit Lopez well in limited at-bats. Houston has won four of their last five games and 10 of their last 13 games overall. They are hitting over .275 as a team over their last eight games. Houston will face an Arizona bullpen that blew last night's contest for the Diamondbacks. We’ll recommend a play on the Astros this afternoon since they are in good current form and facing a pitcher we like to play-against.
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| Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 1:35 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -118 Washington Nationals |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
A trip to the minors hasn't helped Charlie Morton so far this season. The Pirates righty gave up eight runs and nine hits in 3.3 innings pitched to the Milwaukee Brewers his last time out. The loss in that game moved Morton to 1-10 with a 10.03 ERA on the season. He's 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA in four home starts; Morton took a loss against the Nationals last year in Pittsburgh. Despite losing three of their last four games, the Nationals have broken out the lumber scoring 24 runs in those games combined. Washington is 4-1 against the Pirates this season. Morton is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen that has an ERA right around 3.80 at home.
Washington’s Jason Marquis has suddenly discovered what made him a successful pitcher in the past. Marquis has given up just five runs over his last three starts picking up his first win in his last time out against Florida. Andy LaRoche (2-16), Chris Snyder (2-8), John Bowker (1-6), Delwyn Young (0-5), and Garrett Jones (0-3) have poor numbers against the Nationals starter. Washington's bullpen has an ERA right around 4.00 on the road. They'll face a Pirates team that is just 12-25 in daytime games while hitting just .237 as a team in those games. Washington holds the pitching and hitting edges here so we’ll back the road team this afternoon.
Play NATIONALS (-) (action).
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| Saturday, September 04, 2010 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -134 Florida Marlins |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Florida’s Josh Johnson will try for a third time this season to pick up a victory over the Braves on Saturday night. In two outings against Atlanta, Johnson has given up just two runs and nine hits yet he has zero victories. Johnson is 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 career starts against Atlanta. The Marlins ace is 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA in 14 home starts this season. Brian McCann (7-31), Martin Prado (4-21), Eric Hinske (1-9), Nate McLouth (1-8), Troy Glaus (1-7), Melky Cabrera (1-7), Derrek Lee (1-6), Alex Gonzalez (0-6), Omar Infante (1-5), and Matt Diaz (1-5) all struggle with Johnson. The Braves are 29-38 on the road where they are hitting just .250 as a team.
Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens is looking for his first road win of the season. He's 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in nine outings away from Atlanta. Jurrjens gave up four runs and six hits in seven innings of work back in a July start in Florida this season. Hanley Ramirez (6-20), Dan Uggla (7-19), Emilio Bonifacio (5-10), Chad Tracy (4-7), Wes Helms (1-3), and Brad Davis (2-3) all have good numbers against Jurrjens. The Marlins have won three straight games and six of their last nine games overall. Florida holds a huge pitching edge in this game with Johnson over Jurrjens so we expect an easy win by the home team tonight.
Play MARLINS (-) (action).
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| Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT |
Free Play |
| Play: Money Line: -103 Pittsburgh Pirates |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
FREE PLAY
The Pirates took game 1 of their series with the Nationals on Friday night. Tonight’s game features a pair of struggling lefties from both teams. Washington’s John Lannan is 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts this season. On the road, he's 4-3 with a 5.01 ERA striking out 19 while walking 25 batters. The southpaw is 0-3 with a 5.53 ERA in five starts against Pittsburgh. In an earlier start in Washington, Lannan gave up five runs and 10 hits in 4.7 innings pitched to the Pirates. Ronny Cedeno (4-12), Andy LaRoche (3-11), Lastings Milledge (4-10), Ryan Doumit (3-9), Andrew McCutchen (2-5), Jose Tabata (2-3), and Neil Walker (2-3) all hit Lannan well. Pittsburgh has won three straight games at home as they’ve found some offense scoring 38 runs in their last six games. The Nationals bullpen is 4-19 with an ERA over 4.00 this season.
Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm hasn't been as bad at home as he has on the road. Maholm is 5-8 with a 5.44 ERA in 14 home starts. The lefty has yet to face the Nationals this season. Last year, he gave up five runs and 11 hits in 12.3 innings pitched in two outings against Washington. Adam Dunn (3-28), Wil Nieves (0-5), Nyjer Morgan (0-2), and Justin Maxwell (0-2) have poor numbers against Maholm. Washington is 23-47 on the road where they hit slightly over .240 as a team. They are 13-21 against southpaws this season. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 13-3 at home with an ERA around 3.80. Pittsburgh is in good current form right now so we expect them to get another solid home win tonight.
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| Utah State vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: -33.5/-107 Oklahoma |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Oklahoma is a mission team in 2010. The Sooners did not live up to their expectations last season after going just 8-5. But to be fair, the team was dealt a bad hand when Sam Bradford was knocked out for the season in their first game against BYU. Oklahoma was forced to play freshman quarterback Landry Jones the rest of the season, and while playing him instead of Bradford was correlated to Oklahoma’s 5-loss season, Landry’s experience will pay off in spades for the Sooners this season.
As a freshman, Jones actually played terrific for Oklahoma. He threw for over 3,100 yards with 26 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Now in his second full season, Jones will improve because of his experience, and with 8 starters back on offense, Oklahoma will have one of the best scoring units in the country. And their scoring spree begins tonight against an out-classed Utah St team. The Aggies simply do not have the talent, speed, or athleticism to play with Oklahoma; this is basically a paycheck game for the visitors. And taking a woodshed beating to one of the best teams in the country will have no bearing on what Utah St hopes to accomplish once their conference games begin.
At full strength, Utah St was going to be hard-pressed to score on Oklahoma’s defense. And their difficult task is even tougher now that the Aggies will be without their two best offensive threats, running back Robert Turbin and wide receiver Stanley Morrison. And Utah St also lost a key starter on their defense, BYU transfer Matt Ah, in practice this week. This is a hurting team coming into Norman, and with 30 freshman and sophomores making the trip from Logan, this is a game that can ugly real quick. Oklahoma can name the score in this game, and since they won their first two home games last year by a combined 109-0, we expect the Sooners to make a statement here in a game they’ll cover the big pointspread rather easily.
Play OKLAHOMA (-).
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| Washington U vs. BYU (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: 2/-107 Washington U |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Washington made huge strides last season going 5-7 after an embarrassing 0-12 season in 2008. Steve Sarkisian and his coaching staff did a phenomenal job as the Huskies improved their offense by 13 points per game and defense by 12 points per game. With 18 starters back, Washington should improve even more, especially now that they’ve got some new voices in the coaches and some confidence after last year’s success. The Huskies also have future NFL quarterback Jake Locker running the show, and Locker is a tremendous talent and a guy who can take games over. He also has a tremendous supporting cast, especially running back Chris Polk who can take a lot of pressure off of Locker.
This is also a huge game for Washington for underlying reasons. The Huskies were 0-5 on the road a season ago, and they’ve made a commitment to break that streak, and it starts in their season opener. Head coach Sarkisian simulated a true road game for his team by taking them on weekend getaway to a hotel and then busing them over to a stadium and then putting them through a game scrimmage with real game simulations. Sarkisian is also returning to Provo; he played quarterback for BYU and he is very familiar with the surroundings and he knows what to expect in the trip there tonight.
BYU has been a solid team for the last 5 seasons, but those teams had veteran quarterbacks leading them. But that is not the case this year as BYU will be running a two-quarterback system with freshman Jake Heaps taking the majority of the snaps. While Heaps comes well-regarded, he’ll be without a big piece of the BYU offense after running back Harvey Unga left the team in the spring after violating team rules. Without Unga in the backfield, Heaps loses a big safety net which is a big negative for a true freshman quarterback making his first collegiate start. Washington is the better team so we see some tremendous value in taking them as an underdog in this game tonight.
Play WASHINGTON (+).
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| Cincinnati U vs. Fresno State (NCAAF) - 10:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 56.5/-105 Over |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Many believe Cincinnati’s production will drop some this season after losing head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame. But don’t count us in that group. New head coach Butch Jones has picked up right where Kelly has left off in the past as his work at Central Michigan attests. Jones will inherit a Cincinnati offense that will once again be potent behind quarterback Zach Collaros who stepped in admirably when Tony Pike went down with injury last year. Collaros is a duel-threat quarterback who is mighty dangerous running the Bearcats offense.
Cincinnati and Collaros have not been shy when it comes to their offensive plans for this season. ‘The spread offense that we're running under Butch Jones is a little more up-tempo than the one we ran under Brian Kelly,’ said Collaros. ‘We really want to push the tempo. As opposed to having in a million concepts, we like to run a certain number of things and we try to get them perfect. When we're on a drive and our tempo is going good there's not a defense that can really line up with us.’ We agree with Collaros, especially in tonight’s game as Fresno St’s defense is going to have their hands full with the quick, up-tempo pace of Cincinnati, especially in the first game of the season.
Fresno St was a power running team last season behind running back Ryan Mathews who is now in the NFL with the San Diego Chargers. But according to head coach Pat Hill, the Bulldogs are looking to air it out this season behind strong-armed quarterback Ryan Colburn. Hill has said that the passing game will be the ‘lead hand’ for his offense and went further into detail with this. ‘We definitely have a long-ball threat,’ Hill said. ‘We've got some speed on the perimeter and we've got some guys that can really throw the deep ball. That's always the combination you need.’ These two teams played last season and the posted total was 63. But that game had some wind and rain which hampered scoring (48 points) since the teams still combined for more than 800 yards of offense. With tonight’s total a touchdown lower, we see some great value in playing this game Over that number as we expect nothing short of a high-scoring shootout.
Play OVER the total.
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| Friday, September 03, 2010 |
| Arizona U vs. Toledo (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 60.5/-105 Over |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Arizona has undergone some changes from their 8-5 team of 2009. Head coach Mike Stoops lost his defensive coordinator and brother Mark to the same position at Florida St. Offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes left to take over the head coaching job at Louisiana Tech. That left Stoops and Arizona without any coaches to call the offense and defense. And in a peculiar move, Stoops stayed in-house and promoted guys to act as co-coordinators on both sides of the ball. It will interesting to see how this all shakes out, but we’re comfortable in predicting that the Arizona offense will still be an explosive bunch.
The Wildcats have averaged 31 points per game over the last three seasons, and with that same cast back virtually intact, we don’t anticipate much drop-off in offensive production, even after losing the aggressive play calling of Dykes. The offense is experienced with seniors and juniors making up the entire starting 11. Arizona’s offense is in good shape, but their defense is the great unknown as they return only 4 starters from 2009. There’s plenty of reason to expect some growing pains from this unit, especially on the road in their first game against an explosive offensive team like Toledo.
The Rockets averaged 30 points per game in 2009, and they should once again score some big numbers this season. Head coach Tim Beckman is in his second season, and the fact that Toledo improved their offense by more than a touchdown per game in his first year is a positive sign. Like Arizona, the problem doesn’t lie on the offensive side with Toledo. It’s their defense which has allowed 36 points per game over their last three seasons. And when this team steps-up in class against a BCS conference opponent, they simply cannot stop them. Last year they allowed 52 points to Purdue, 38 to Colorado, and 38 to Ohio St. In 2008, they allowed Arizona to score 41 points. Since both teams possess potent offenses and both defenses have many questions to answer, we expect plenty of points tonight in what should be a wild, high-scoring game.
Play OVER the total.
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| Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 9.5/-113 Over |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Florida begins a series with divisional rival Atlanta on Friday night. The Marlins turn to Andrew Miller to make his second start of the season for this game. Miller's first outing went only five innings after he gave up one run and three hits. Miller has made three appearances for the team this season, and his biggest issue is walks as he has seven compared to only five strikeouts. The lefty faced the Braves back in April of 2009 and gave up four runs and four hits in 4.7 innings of work. Matt Diaz (3-9), Brian McCann (3-6), Rick Ankiel (2-3), Omar Infante (1-3), Eric Hinske (2-2), and Nate McLouth (1-2) all have had success against Miller. Atlanta's offense has been on fire as of late. They've scored at least four runs or more in five of their last six games. Florida has a bullpen that is 10-11 with a 4.67 ERA at home this season.
Kenshin Kawakami returns to the mound for Atlanta. He's 1-9 with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts this season. He wasn't much better in five outings down in AAA. Kawakami went 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA. The righty took the loss against the Marlins back on May 25th after giving up three runs and seven hits in six innings of work. He's 1-3 with a 5.56 ERA in four career starts against Florida. Dan Uggla (4-9) and Cameron Maybin (2-2) have the best numbers against the Braves starter. Florida has gone Over the total in four of five games and Over in 9 of their last 12 games as they've hit their offensive stride. Florida is averaging 6.7 runs per game in their last seven games. Atlanta's bullpen has shown some cracks on the road sporting an ERA near 3.60 away from home. This game has all the makings of a slugfest which means we expect a high-scoring game between the Braves and Marlins.
Play OVER the total.
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| Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -148 San Diego Padres |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
San Diego turns to one of their most heralded prospects to stop a 7-game losing streak. Cory Luebke had a 14 inning scoreless streak in AAA Portland prior to his call-up for tonight’s game. Luebke posted a 2.97 ERA with 44 strikeouts and just 17 walks in nine starts while there. The lefty will face a Colorado offense that seems to take a vacation on the road. The Rockies are hitting just .227 as a unit on the road which is the main reason why they are 26-42 away from Coors Field. Luebke will be backed by a San Diego bullpen that is 12-6 with a 2.46 ERA at home this season. The Rockies have scored just 10 runs in their last six road games.
Colorado’s Aaron Cook makes the start after coming off the DL as he dealt with a foot ailment. Cook is 4-8 with a 5.34 ERA in 21 starts this season. He's even worse on the road going 1-6 with a 6.17 ERA in 11 starts away from Colorado. Cook has good numbers against San Diego, but in his lone start against them this season, he gave up five runs and six hits in five innings of work. Adrian Gonzalez (12-33), Chase Headley (6-14), Miguel Tejada (2-6), and Matt Stairs (3-3) all hit Cook well. San Diego is 38-26 at home, and the Padres may feast on a Colorado bullpen that is 7-13 on the road with seven blown saves. Luebke is a tremendous young prospect for the Padres, and we expect him to shutdown the Colorado offense tonight.
Play PADRES (-) (action).
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| Thursday, September 02, 2010 |
| Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees (MLB) - 1:05 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 8/114 Under |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Yankees can sweep the Athletics with a win on Thursday afternoon. They'll send CC Sabathia to the mound to get that victory. He has been money at Yankee Stadium going 10-0 with a 2.46 ERA in 13 starts there this season. In 91.3 innings pitched, he has given up just 28 runs. Sabathia is 1-1 against the Athletics this season. His last time out in Oakland, he gave up one run and seven hits in 7.7 innings of work. Furthermore, Sabathia is 16-6 with a 2.07 ERA in his last five September’s combined. Only Daric Barton (3-11) hits above .250 against Sabathia on the Athletics roster. Oakland has gone Under the total in 20 of their 34 games against southpaws this season. They average only 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters. They have also gone Under in 26 of their 43 daytime games.
Dallas Braden is on fire for the Athletics. He's 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts giving up just five runs in his last 22 innings pitched. During that span, he managed to defeat the Rangers and Blue Jays while losing a one run tilt with the Tampa Bay Rays. Braden defeated Sabathia 4-2 back in April of this season after giving up just two runs and six hits in six innings of work. Curtis Granderson (1-8), Robinson Cano (1-8), Nick Swisher (1-6), Jorge Posada (1-4), and Brett Gardner (0-2) all struggle with the Athletics starter. The Yankees don't hit southpaws as hard as they do righties, and since we expect Sabathia to shutdown the A’s, we anticipate a low-scoring game this afternoon.
Play UNDER the total.
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| Pittsburgh U vs. Utah (NCAAF) - 8:30 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: -3/-101 Utah |
Push |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Pittsburgh had their best season under head coach Dave Wannstedt in 2009 as the Panthers went 10-3 after capping off their season with a win in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Last year’s team was expected to really improve as they had 15 returning starters and an offense that was in the same system for the previous two seasons. The team increased their production on both sides of the ball because of their experience, but a lot of their experience has graduated as the Panthers return just 11 starters for the 2010 season.
And they figure to be up against it tonight in Utah because Pittsburgh will be starting sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri who has little experience after throwing just 17 passes last season. Sunseri will be making his first collegiate start and that chore is more magnified with this game being on the road in a very tough place to play. Utah always enjoys a strong homefield advantage because of the thin air and altitude, and that edge should be even more pronounced tonight with this being the first game of the season. Pittsburgh hasn’t traveled this far West for a game since 2004, so the whole experience is going to be new for the entire staff and team. There’s no simulation for the affects of the thin air and altitude so without knowing what to expect, Pittsburgh has had minimal preparation for what they will go through tonight.
Utah is also playing with a new quarterback this season. However, Jordan Wynn got some much-needed experience last season as he started the final 5 games with the Utes going 3-2 in those games. But Wynn increased Utah’s offensive production 7 points per game as they averaged 34 points per game rather than the 27 points per game they scored before he took over as the starter. Utah returns 8 guys on offense so their production should pick-up right where they left off. Utah is on an incredible 17-1 run at home over the last 3 years, and since Pittsburgh is a young team that is playing behind a young quarterback, we expect the home to pull away to a comfortable win tonight.
Play UTAH (-).
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| USC vs. Hawaii (NCAAF) - 11:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: -21/-110 USC |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
A lot of change happened at USC over the last nine months. Pete Carroll saw the writing on the wall and he took off to the NFL to coach the Seattle Seahawks. Lane Kiffin jumped at the chance to return to Los Angeles; Kiffin coached under Carroll for six years before he left for the NFL and then back to the colleges in Tennessee. So Kiffin is familiar with his surroundings and familiar with how USC has done things in the past. Despite the overhauled coaching staff, not much has changed in the way USC football runs. Kiffin learned under Carroll so he’ll continue doing things the same way which is a positive for the current roster at USC.
As we mentioned, Carroll left before USC was handed their suspensions from post-season play for numerous violations, but again, he knew they were coming. But those rulings have had a major hand in the way the Trojans are preparing for the 2010 season. They were mediocre by their standards after going just 9-4 last year, but this team is simply loaded with talent throughout the roster to regress any further. And knowing that they’ve got a new coach to impress and plenty of motivation, this team is looking to make a statement early on, especially in their first game of the season on national TV.
Hawaii is simply out-classed in this game. And not only that, but the Warriors are decimated by youth and injuries to their offensive line. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Hawaii to contain USC's front seven with four new starting offensive linemen, and their job got more difficult after their starting center hurt his knee and is now out for this game. In his place will be a walk-on center, and USC’s fast, talented, and explosive defense should wreck havoc all game long. So we have the more talented team playing with motivation looking to make a statement against a young Hawaii team that lost three home games by 25, 41, and 45 points a season ago. We don’t expect much of game here as USC rolls to dominating win in their season opener.
Play USC (-).
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| New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 8:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: -7/-110 Tennessee Titans |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The final week of preseason football is similar to the final week of the NFL regular season. Teams go into these games with different agendas, and it’s imperative to try and decipher what each team wants to get out of the game. And in this particular game tonight between the Saints and Titans, there’s a certified difference in the approach these teams will take.
New Orleans opens their regular season exactly one week from tonight at home against the Minnesota Vikings. And head coach Sean Payton could care less about tonight’s game in Tennessee, and he’s treating this like a glorified workout for his team as half of his starters are not even going to make the trip to Nashville. ‘In our case, the very first game being the following Thursday, there's not additional time if you get a player nicked,’ Payton said. ‘So we're going to be pretty smart about how we approach it because we play seven days later in a game that means something.’
On the other hand, Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher views tonight’s game as a way to get his team better, especially after they played a terrible game in last week’s 15-7 loss to Carolina. The Titans will be playing their starters tonight as quarterback Vince Young is expected to see extended action once again, possibly into the third quarter. ‘They're going to have 11 on the field, and that's what is important to us and we're getting ready to play hard,’ Fisher said. ‘We're going to play hard, we're going to play a lot of people, we're going to play the starters, and we'll continue to play guys who are working to earn a spot on this roster. We've got a lot of things we need to accomplish.’ So because of the game plans listed above, we expect the Titans to cruise to an easy win tonight in a game that means a lot more to them than it does to New Orleans.
Play TITANS (-).
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| Wednesday, September 01, 2010 |
| Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 9/-107 Over |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
New York's offense has found their stride at home against the Athletics. The Yankees have pounded out 20 runs in the first two games of this series. Game 3 will feature lefty Brett Anderson for Oakland. He's 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA in his six road starts. The lefty has given up nine runs and 21 hits over his last 15 innings pitched. Anderson is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. All three starts came last year with Anderson giving up 12 runs and 24 hits in 19 innings pitched. Derek Jeter (5-10), Mark Teixeira (3-9), Robinson Cano (3-9), Jorge Posada (2-6), and Austin Kearns (1-3) all hit Anderson well. The Yankees have gone Over the total in 37 of their 66 home games where they are scoring 6.1 runs per game. They are hitting .300 in their last eight games with five of those games going Over the total. Oakland's bullpen struggles on the road sporting an ERA near 4.80.
A.J. Burnett's rotation spot may be in danger if he continues to pitch poorly. Burnett's last two starts have been terrible. The righty has given up 15 runs and 20 hits in his last 10.3 innings of work. He's 9-12 with a 5.17 ERA in 26 outings overall. He's 3-3 with a 3.81 ERA in eight starts against the A's in his career. Kurt Suzuki (4-15), Gabe Gross (4-13), Daric Barton (3-9) and, Kevin Kouzmanoff (1-3) all hit Burnett well. Oakland has gone Over the total in three straight games and Over in four of their last five games overall. They have scored at least 3 runs or more in five straight games. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA over 4.00 at home having blown seven saves as well. With both offenses in good current form, we expect a high-scoring game tonight between the A’s and Yankees.
Play OVER the total.
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| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) - 3:10 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: -101 Philadelphia Phillies |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Phillies have one more game with the Dodgers on Wednesday afternoon and they turn to Roy Oswalt to get the win. Oswalt is 9-13 with a 3.12 ERA this season. He's enjoying his time with the Phillies so far. The righty is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts giving up just four runs and 16 hits in 22 innings pitched. Oswalt has already defeated the Dodgers after holding them to five hits in seven innings of work in Philadelphia. Overall, he's 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles. James Loney (3-15), Andre Ethier (3-14), Jay Gibbons (0-6), Matt Kemp (0-5), and Reed Johnson (1-4) struggle with the former Astros starter. Los Angeles is 15-18 in the daytime this season hitting .242 as a team while averaging 3.5 runs per game.
Clayton Kershaw is still looking for his first victory against the Phillies. The crafty lefty is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA in six career starts against Philadelphia. This includes a no-decision on August 12th where he gave up two runs and six hits in 6.7 innings of work. His last two starts in Los Angeles against the Phillies were both Philadelphia wins. Jayson Werth (4-13), Chase Utley (3-10), Placido Polanco (2-5), Carlos Ruiz (2-5), Mike Sweeney (1-3), and Wilson Valdez (1-3) all hit the lefty well. Philadelphia is 20-18 against lefties averaging 4.7 runs per game. They are also 20-19 in the daytime while hitting .262 and scoring nearly 5 runs per game. Philadelphia holds all of the edges in this game so we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.
Play PHILLIES (-) (action).
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| New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 7/-124 Over |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Braves offense has found their stroke this week scoring 48 runs in their last six games. They'll play game 3 of their series with the Mets on Wednesday night. Mike Pelfrey has faced the Braves four times this season going 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA. The problem for Pelfrey is that he has given up 32 hits in 21.1 innings pitched against Atlanta. Brian McCann (18-37), Martin Prado (7-16), Omar Infante (5-12), Eric Hinske (4-8), Rick Ankiel (2-7), and Alex Gonzalez (1-3) all hit Pelfrey well. The Braves have gone Over the total in four straight games and Over in 8 of their last 10 games. They are hitting nearly .300 as a unit in their last eight games. The Mets bullpen has an ERA near 4.70 on the road so that will help the Over when Pelfrey struggles.
Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson has been struggling as of late. He's 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three games giving up 13 runs and 20 hits in 17 innings pitched. Hanson’s last time out against the Mets, he gave up two runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings in New York. Angel Pagan (2-7), Luis Castillo (2-5), and Josh Thole (2-5) have had the most success in limited at-bats against Hanson. The Mets have gone Over the total in four of their last eight games. With such a low total posted, we see tremendous value in playing this game Over the small number.
Play OVER the total.
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MLB Report (Saturday, September 4) |
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Sep 4, 2010 |
By: Steve Merril
Below is a free MLB play with analysis for Saturday night:
TIGERS at ROYALS (-115) – 7:10 pm ET #977-978
Not an official play, but I would rate the Tigers as a light lean tonight.
Detroit’s Rick Porcello has benefited from his time in the minor leagues. The Tigers starter has thrown a quality start in six of his last nine ...
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NFL Game of the Day (Vikings/49ers) |
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Aug 22, 2010 |
NFL Game of the Day – Vikings at 49ers (-2½, 35)
By Steve Merril
Opening Line and Weather Report
The oddsmakers opened San Francisco as a 3-point home favorite earlier this week on Monday and the line later dropped to -2½ on Saturday morning. The Over/Under opened at 34½ and has risen to 35 in some locations.
The weather looks fantastic on Su ...
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